Trump Re-Election Index
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Trump leads in PA, WI, trails in Michigan as Restoration PAC begins monthly polling in pivotal states
Contact: Dan Curry ([email protected])
DOWNERS GROVE, IL -- New polls taken in the midst of the coronavirus crisis show that President Trump leads Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and trails them both in Michigan.
The polls, taken March 12 to March 21 of 600 registered voters in each state, showed a sharp uptick in Trump’s job approval in later days as his daily briefings have led to a nationwide spike in approval.
In all likelihood, Trump must win all three states to win re-election. That is the reason Restoration PAC launched the polling and created the Trump Re-Election Index (TRI) that becomes perhaps the best barometer in America of the 2020 presidential race.
Here are the topline results: https://www.restorationofamerica.com/trump_reelection_index.
MICHIGAN (March 12-16)
WISCONSIN (March 17-19)
PENNSYLVANIA (March 19-21)
The project was started because Restoration PAC founder and president Doug Truax said national polling results are disjointed and hard to interpret. By zeroing in on three crucial swing states that President Trump almost certainly needs to win to be re-elected, citizens can figure out how the election is going at a glance.
“These three states made Donald Trump president in 2016 and they will be just as important in 2020,” said Truax. “We want to keep a close eye on all three and present our findings in an easy to follow format.”
Truax founded Restoration PAC — one of the most effective conservative SuperPACs in America — in 2015 after his impressive U.S. Senate race in Illinois as a political newcomer. Truax is a West Point graduate, U.S. Army veteran, and successful health care entrepreneur.
President Trump was not expected to win any of the three states in 2016, according to polls and experts. He won Wisconsin by 22,748 votes, Michigan by 10,704 votes and Pennsylvania by 44,792 votes.
In the Michigan Senate race, the poll found that incumbent Democrat Gary Peters was leading Republican John James by a 47.8%-39.2% margin.
In the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, Republican Daniel Kelly was leading Democrat Jill Karofsky by a 36.3%-29.2% margin.
In addition to measuring presidential and senate races, the monthly polling measured voter sentiment on issue preferences. The full results can be seen here.
The polling is being supervised by respected pollster Glenn Hodas of Springfield, IL. Active in government and politics for over 30 years, Hodas is a national pollster with a portfolio of federal, state and local clients, as well as trade associations and independent expenditure groups.
POLLSTER’S ANALYSIS: We were in the field in Michigan right before the pandemic-coverage started dominating the news and you could see the data start to move. The President’s job approval rating started to climb, presumably as a result of his lengthy and live daily coronavirus briefings, mirroring other national polling. The trend continued through our testing in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It will be interesting to see how this trend plays out. Another obvious trend mirroring 2016: Trump is doing well in rural areas and Biden in urban locales. The suburbs are split: No doubt, the battle lines are drawn for a real knife-fight there.