Trump Re-Election Index

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President Trump picks up lost ground in WI, MI, and PA, new polls show



Contact: Dan Curry ([email protected])


DOWNERS GROVE, IL -- President Trump began to rebound in July from a June cratering in the crucial swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, new polls show.

The Restoration PAC polls, taken July 13 to July 27 of 600 likely voters in each state, showed the beginnings of a rallying behind the president, perhaps in reaction to civil unrest and chaos.

Biden now leads Trump by 11 percentage points in Michigan, 12.3 percentage points in Wisconsin and 5.4 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

“I believe the race appears to be turning in the President’s direction.” said Restoration PAC Founder and President Doug Truax. “Americans seem to be reaching out to President Trump to stop the dismantling of our country’s traditions, statues, and way of life.”

In all likelihood, Trump must win all three states to win re-election. That is the reason Restoration PAC launched the polling and created the Trump Re-Election Index (TRI) that becomes perhaps the best barometer in America of the 2020 presidential race.

Here are the topline results: (Full results are available at our website).



Trump: 40.3 percent

Biden: 51.3 percent

Change: Trump +6.5 percentage points


Trump: 37.9 percent

Biden: 50.3 percent

Change: Trump +4.2 percentage points


Trump: 44.3 percent

Biden: 49.7 percent

Change: Trump +6.3 percentage points


The project was started because Truax said national polling results are disjointed and hard to interpret. By zeroing in on three crucial swing states that President Trump almost certainly needs to win to be re-elected, citizens can figure out how the election is going at a glance.

Truax founded Restoration PAC — one of the most effective conservative SuperPACs in America — in 2015 after his impressive U.S. Senate race in Illinois as a political newcomer. Truax is a West Point graduate, U.S. Army veteran, and successful health care entrepreneur.

President Trump was not expected to win any of the three states in 2016, according to polls and experts. He won Wisconsin by 22,748 votes, Michigan by 10,704 votes and Pennsylvania by 44,792 votes.

In the Michigan Senate race, the newest poll found a slight uptick for Republican challenger John James. Democrat Gary Peters was leading James by a 49.7% to 38.2% margin.

In addition to measuring presidential and senate races, the monthly polling measured voter sentiment on issue preferences. The full results can be seen here.

The polling is being supervised by respected pollster Glenn Hodas of Springfield, IL. Active in government and politics for over 30 years, Hodas is a national pollster with a portfolio of federal, state and local clients, as well as trade associations and independent expenditure groups.

The poll was conducted by telephone from a representative sample of 600 registered voters that are likely to vote in the 2020 General Elections. Of the completed interviews, roughly 70 percent came from respondents on landlines, and 30 percent came from respondents on cellphones. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3% at the 95% confidence interval. That means that in 95 out of 100 samples of the same size and type, the results obtained would vary by no more than plus or minus 3 percentage points from the result we would obtain if we could interview every member of the population. The margin of error is higher among the various sub-groups.

POLLSTER’S ANALYSIS: ”President rebounded some from the low-point June polls. While the electorates in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are still critical of Trump’s coronavirus leadership, there appears to be a growing concern over the riots and general chaos that is working in the President’s favor. It will be interesting to see how those countervailing factors play out in August.”