Trump Re-Election Index
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President Trump surges ahead in PA, loses ground in MI and WI, our latest polls show
Contact: Dan Curry ([email protected])
DOWNERS GROVE, IL -- Donald Trump surged to a lead in Pennsylvania and slipped further behind in Wisconsin and Michigan, Restoration PAC’s May polls show.
The polls, taken May 1 to May 13 of 600 likely voters in each state, showed a much better result in the latest poll taken — May 9-13 in Pennsylvania — possibly correlating to a bump in President Trump’s standing nationally in other polls.
In all likelihood, Trump must win all three states to win re-election. That is the reason Restoration PAC launched the polling and created the Trump Re-Election Index (TRI) that becomes perhaps the best barometer in America of the 2020 presidential race.
Here are the topline results: (Full results are available at our website).
The project was started because Restoration PAC founder and president Doug Truax said national polling results are disjointed and hard to interpret. By zeroing in on three crucial swing states that President Trump almost certainly needs to win to be re-elected, citizens can figure out how the election is going at a glance.
“Definitely seemed to be some backlash in Pennsylvania against the virus shutdown orders and a confidence that President Trump can resurrect the economy,” noted Truax.
Truax founded Restoration PAC — one of the most effective conservative SuperPACs in America — in 2015 after his impressive U.S. Senate race in Illinois as a political newcomer. Truax is a West Point graduate, U.S. Army veteran, and successful health care entrepreneur.
President Trump was not expected to win any of the three states in 2016, according to polls and experts. He won Wisconsin by 22,748 votes, Michigan by 10,704 votes and Pennsylvania by 44,792 votes.
In the Michigan Senate race, the newest poll found that incumbent Democrat Gary Peters was leading Republican John James by a 47.5% to 35.5% margin.
In addition to measuring presidential and senate races, the monthly polling measured voter sentiment on issue preferences. The full results can be seen here.
The polling is being supervised by respected pollster Glenn Hodas of Springfield, IL. Active in government and politics for over 30 years, Hodas is a national pollster with a portfolio of federal, state and local clients, as well as trade associations and independent expenditure groups.
The poll was conducted by telephone from a representative sample of 600 registered voters that are likely to vote in the 2020 General Elections. Of the completed interviews, roughly 70 percent came from respondents on landlines, and 30 percent came from respondents on cellphones. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3% at the 95% confidence interval. That means that in 95 out of 100 samples of the same size and type, the results obtained would vary by no more than plus or minus 3 percentage points from the result we would obtain if we could interview every member of the population. The margin of error is higher among the various sub-groups.
POLLSTER’S ANALYSIS: "Because they are roughly similar demographically, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have performed vaguely in lockstep in previous polls. There seems to be a convergence in these polls between results in Pennsylvania and those in Michigan and Wisconsin. Nationally, President Trump has surged a bit nationally in other polls and that might explain the Pennsylvania result. It will be interesting going forward to see if that divergence is cemented or whether the time frame of the polling might have played a stronger role in the differences."